Weekly Review:
The benchmark NIFTY 50 index ended the week on a negative note, closing at 24,363.5, down by 203 points or 0.82%. This marks the sixth straight week of decline, making it the longest losing streak since August 2023.
| Weekly Snapshot | |
|---|---|
| Open | 24,596.05 |
| High | 24,736.25 |
| Low | 24,337.5 |
| Close | 24,363.5 |
| Previous Close | 24,565.05 |
| Weekly Change | -203 Points (-0.82%) |
| 52 Week High | 26,277.35 |
| 52 Week Low | 21,743.65 |
| Key Resistance | 24,950 |
| Key Support | 24,000 |
📉 Technical Trend (IMRA Analysis)
| Trend Types | Direction |
| Long Term | Up⬆️ |
| Medium Term | Down⬇️ |
| Short Term | Down⬇️ |
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Chart Overview
The chart displays the daily candlestick pattern of the Nifty 50 index. Overlaid on the chart are two key technical indicators:
50-Day Simple Moving Average (50 DMA) shown in red
200-Day Simple Moving Average (200 DMA) shown in black
📈 Long-Term Trend (200 DMA)
From a broader perspective, the Nifty’s long-term trend remains bullish. Prices are still holding above the 200 DMA, and the 50 DMA continues to hover above the 200 DMA — a sign that the overall market structure is intact despite recent weakness.
📉 Medium-Term Trend (50 DMA)
In the medium term, the tone has shifted bearish. The index has slipped under the 50 DMA, pointing to a loss of momentum. For swing traders, this suggests caution, as intermediate direction currently favors the downside.
📊 Short-Term Trend
Short-term action is also weak. The price remains below a descending trendline connecting recent highs, confirming persistent selling pressure. This decline from peak levels reflects near-term trader sentiment leaning negative.
⚠️ Key Levels & Market Note
The Nifty has broken its short-term support at 24,469 and is now edging toward the next crucial support at 23,936. However, traders should tread carefully this week — most technical indicators are already in the oversold zone. This raises the probability of a pullback or relief rally, even within the broader downtrend.
Trend Analysis – An Evolving Market Story
The market may be showing cracks in the short term, but the bigger picture still leans positive. IMRA’s research points out that the long-term uptrend remains intact. What we’re seeing now is more of a cooling-off phase than a complete reversal — a reminder that markets often pause before resuming their primary direction.
In the near term, Nifty could move sideways or slip slightly, perhaps retesting the 24,500–24,000 zone. There’s little evidence of a full-blown crash; instead, this looks like a stage where Buy-on-Dips believers might quietly be building positions.
🌐 Why the Market Is Feeling the Heat
1. Global Weakness Seeping In
Global indices are under pressure, and that risk aversion is spilling over into Indian markets. With uncertainty abroad, domestic sentiment is naturally softer.
2. FII Selling Pressure
Foreign Institutional Investors have been pulling money out consistently, draining liquidity and making it harder for the bulls to hold ground.
3. Sectoral Cracks
Pharma took the sharpest hit — the Nifty Pharma index tumbled after fresh concerns over possible US drug price regulations. Realty, IT, Defence, and Metals also joined the losers’ list.
4. Trade War Shadows
The US administration’s 25% tariff on certain Indian goods — reported by The Economic Times — has reignited trade tensions. Such policy shocks rarely go unnoticed by the market.
5. Bearish Chart Patterns
Weekly charts are flashing warning signs: bearish candles with long upper shadows, signalling that sellers are overpowering buyers at higher levels.
🏆 Sector Snapshot
FMCG – The lone bright spot. Its defensive nature and steady demand kept it relatively firm while other sectors stumbled.
Pharma, IT, Metal, Realty – Major drags on the index, contributing heavily to the week’s weakness.
📊 Derivatives Outlook
Options data pins the short-term range between 24,000 and 25,000. A move above 24,950 could open doors for a rebound, but slipping under 24,500 may invite another leg down toward 24,100–24,000.
🧠 IMRA’s Strategic Lens
Short-Term Traders – Keep your eyes on 24,500; losing this level could change the tone quickly.
Medium-Term View – Expect potential trend reversal in the coming months, not days.
Long-Term Investors – Stay the course. A 3–5 year horizon still carries an upward bias, and dips in quality stocks can be opportunities rather than threats.